Approaches to the evaluation of outbreak detection methods

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of methods are being developed for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks which could be naturally occurring or as a result of bioterrorism; however, no standardised framework for examining the usefulness of various outbreak detection methods exists. To promote comparability between studies, it is essential that standardised methods are developed for the evaluation of outbreak detection methods. METHODS: This analysis aims to review approaches used to evaluate outbreak detection methods and provide a conceptual framework upon which recommendations for standardised evaluation methods can be based. We reviewed the recently published literature for reports which evaluated methods for the detection of infectious disease outbreaks in public health surveillance data. Evaluation methods identified in the recent literature were categorised according to the presence of common features to provide a conceptual basis within which to understand current approaches to evaluation. RESULTS: There was considerable variation in the approaches used for the evaluation of methods for the detection of outbreaks in public health surveillance data, and appeared to be no single approach of choice. Four main approaches were used to evaluate performance, and these were labelled the Descriptive, Derived, Epidemiological and Simulation approaches. Based on the approaches identified, we propose a basic framework for evaluation and recommend the use of multiple approaches to evaluation to enable a comprehensive and contextualised description of outbreak detection performance. CONCLUSION: The varied nature of performance evaluation demonstrated in this review supports the need for further development of evaluation methods to improve comparability between studies. Our findings indicate that no single approach can fulfil all evaluation requirements. We propose that the cornerstone approaches to evaluation identified provide key contributions to support internal and external validity and comparability of study findings, and suggest these be incorporated into future recommendations for performance assessment

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of asthma in ethnically diverse North American populations.

Asthma is a common disease with a complex risk architecture including both genetic and environmental factors. We performed a meta-analysis of North American genome-wide association studies of asthma in 5,416 individuals with asthma (cases) including individuals of European American, African American or African Caribbean, and Latino ancestry, with replication in an additional 12,649 individuals from the same ethnic groups. We identified five susceptibility loci. Four were at previously reported loci on 17q21, near IL1RL1, TSLP and IL33, but we report for the first time, to our knowledge, that these loci are associated with asthma risk in three ethnic groups. In addition, we identified a new asthma susceptibility locus at PYHIN1, with the association being specific to individuals of African descent (P = 3.9 × 10(-9)). These results suggest that some asthma susceptibility loci are robust to differences in ancestry when sufficiently large samples sizes are investigated, and that ancestry-specific associations also contribute to the complex genetic architecture of asthma

What Are the Real Procedural Costs of Bariatric Surgery? A Systematic Literature Review of Published Cost Analyses

This review aims to evaluate the current literature on the procedural costs of bariatric surgery for the treatment of severe obesity. Using a published framework for the conduct of micro-costing studies for surgical interventions, existing cost estimates from the literature are assessed for their accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness based on their consideration of seven ‘important’ cost components. MEDLINE, PubMed, key journals and reference lists of included studies were searched up to January 2017. Eligible studies had to report per-case, total procedural costs for any type of bariatric surgery broken down into two or more individual cost components. A total of 998 citations were screened, of which 13 studies were included for analysis. Included studies were mainly conducted from a US hospital perspective, assessed either gastric bypass or adjustable gastric banding procedures and considered a range of different cost components. The mean total procedural costs for all included studies was US$14,389 (range, US$7423 to US$33,541). No study considered all of the recommended ‘important’ cost components and estimation methods were poorly reported. The accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness of the existing cost estimates are, therefore, questionable. There is a need for a comparative cost analysis of the different approaches to bariatric surgery, with the most appropriate costing approach identified to be micro-costing methods. Such an analysis will not only be useful in estimating the relative cost-effectiveness of different surgeries but will also ensure appropriate reimbursement and budgeting by healthcare payers to ensure barriers to access this effective treatment by severely obese patients are minimised

The genomes of two key bumblebee species with primitive eusocial organization

Background: The shift from solitary to social behavior is one of the major evolutionary transitions. Primitively eusocial bumblebees are uniquely placed to illuminate the evolution of highly eusocial insect societies. Bumblebees are also invaluable natural and agricultural pollinators, and there is widespread concern over recent population declines in some species. High-quality genomic data will inform key aspects of bumblebee biology, including susceptibility to implicated population viability threats. Results: We report the high quality draft genome sequences of Bombus terrestris and Bombus impatiens, two ecologically dominant bumblebees and widely utilized study species. Comparing these new genomes to those of the highly eusocial honeybee Apis mellifera and other Hymenoptera, we identify deeply conserved similarities, as well as novelties key to the biology of these organisms. Some honeybee genome features thought to underpin advanced eusociality are also present in bumblebees, indicating an earlier evolution in the bee lineage. Xenobiotic detoxification and immune genes are similarly depauperate in bumblebees and honeybees, and multiple categories of genes linked to social organization, including development and behavior, show high conservation. Key differences identified include a bias in bumblebee chemoreception towards gustation from olfaction, and striking differences in microRNAs, potentially responsible for gene regulation underlying social and other traits. Conclusions: These two bumblebee genomes provide a foundation for post-genomic research on these key pollinators and insect societies. Overall, gene repertoires suggest that the route to advanced eusociality in bees was mediated by many small changes in many genes and processes, and not by notable expansion or depauperation

Immunohistochemical assessment of intrinsic and extrinsic markers of hypoxia in reproductive tissue: differential expression of HIF1α and HIF2α in rat oviduct and endometrium

Hypoxia is thought to be critical in regulating physiological processes within the female reproductive system, including ovulation, composition of the fluid in the oviductal/uterine lumens and ovarian follicle development. This study examined the localisation of exogenous (pimonidazole) and endogenous [hypoxia inducible factor 1α and 2α (HIF1α, -2α), glucose transporter type 1 (GLUT1) and carbonic anhydrase 9 (CAIX)] hypoxia-related antigens within the oviduct and uterus of the rat reproductive tract. The extent to which each endogenous antigen co-compartmentalised with pimonidazole was also assessed. Female Wistar Furth rats (n = 10) were injected intraperitoneally with pimonidazole (60 mg/kg) 1 h prior to death. Reproductive tissues were removed immediately following death and fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde before being embedded in paraffin. Serial sections were cut (6–7 μm thick) and antigens of interest identified using standard immunohistochemical procedures. The mucosal epithelia of the ampulla, isthmus and uterus were immunopositive for pimonidazole in most sections. Co-compartmentalisation of pimonidazole with HIF1α was only expressed in the mucosa of the uterus whilst co-compartmentalisation with HIF2α was observed in the mucosa of the ampulla, isthmus and uterus. Both GLUT1 and CAIX were co-compartmentalised with pimonidazole in mucosa of the isthmus and uterus. This study confirms that mucosal regions of the rat oviduct and uterus frequently experience severe hypoxia and there are compartment specific variations in expression of endogenous hypoxia-related antigens, including the HIF isoforms. The latter observation may relate to target gene specificity of HIF isoforms or perhaps HIF2α’s responsiveness to non-hypoxic stimuli such as hypoglycaemia independently of HIF1α

Response of different PTH assays to therapy with sevelamer or CaCO3 and active vitamin D sterols

Amino-terminally truncated parathyroid hormone (PTH) fragments are detected to differing degrees by first- and second-generation immunometric PTH assays (PTH-IMAs), and acute changes in serum calcium affect the proportion of these fragments in circulation. However, the effect of chronic calcium changes and different vitamin D doses on these PTH measurements remains to be defined. In this study, 60 pediatric dialysis patients, aged 13.9 ± 0.7 years, with secondary hyperparathyroidism were randomized to 8 months of therapy with oral vitamin D combined with either calcium carbonate (CaCO3) or sevelamer. Serum phosphorus levels did not differ between groups. Serum calcium levels rose from 9.3 ± 0.1 to 9.7 ± 0.1 mg/dl during CaCO3 therapy (p < 0.01 from baseline) but remained unchanged during sevelamer therapy. In the CaCO3 and sevelamer groups, baseline serum PTH levels (1st PTH-IMA; Nichols Institute Diagnostics, San Clemente, CA) were 964 ± 75 and 932 ± 89 pg/ml, and levels declined to 491 ± 55 and 543 ± 59 pg/ml, respectively (nonsignificant between groups). Patients treated with sevelamer received higher doses of vitamin D than those treated with CaCO3. The PTH values obtained by first- and second-generation PTH-IMAs correlated closely throughout therapy and the response of PTH was similar to both PTH-IMAs, despite differences in serum calcium levels

Two-way communication with neural networks in vivo using focused light

Neuronal networks process information in a distributed, spatially heterogeneous manner that transcends the layout of electrodes. In contrast, directed and steerable light offers the potential to engage specific cells on demand. We present a unified framework for adapting microscopes to use light for simultaneous in vivo stimulation and recording of cells at fine spatiotemporal resolutions. We use straightforward optics to lock onto networks in vivo, to steer light to activate circuit elements and to simultaneously record from other cells. We then actualize this 'free' augmentation on both an 'open' two-photon microscope and a leading commercial one. By following this protocol, setup of the system takes a few days, and the result is a noninvasive interface to brain dynamics based on directed light, at a network resolution that was not previously possible and which will further improve with the rapid advance in development of optical reporters and effectors. This protocol is for physiologists who are competent with computers and wish to extend hardware and software to interface more fluidly with neuronal networks.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Postdoctoral Fellowship)Simons Foundation (Postdoctoral Fellowship)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Predoctoral Fellowship)National Institutes of Health (U.S.)Simons Foundatio

Investigating Bacterial Sources of Toxicity as an Environmental Contributor to Dopaminergic Neurodegeneration

Parkinson disease (PD) involves progressive neurodegeneration, including loss of dopamine (DA) neurons from the substantia nigra. Select genes associated with rare familial forms of PD function in cellular pathways, such as the ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS), involved in protein degradation. The misfolding and accumulation of proteins, such as α-synuclein, into inclusions termed Lewy Bodies represents a clinical hallmark of PD. Given the predominance of sporadic PD among patient populations, environmental toxins may induce the disease, although their nature is largely unknown. Thus, an unmet challenge surrounds the discovery of causal or contributory neurotoxic factors that could account for the prevalence of sporadic PD. Bacteria within the order Actinomycetales are renowned for their robust production of secondary metabolites and might represent unidentified sources of environmental exposures. Among these, the aerobic genera, Streptomyces, produce natural proteasome inhibitors that block protein degradation and may potentially damage DA neurons. Here we demonstrate that a metabolite produced by a common soil bacterium, S. venezuelae, caused DA neurodegeneration in the nematode, Caenorhabditis elegans, which increased as animals aged. This metabolite, which disrupts UPS function, caused gradual degeneration of all neuronal classes examined, however DA neurons were particularly vulnerable to exposure. The presence of DA exacerbated toxicity because neurodegeneration was attenuated in mutant nematodes depleted for tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), the rate-limiting enzyme in DA production. Strikingly, this factor caused dose-dependent death of human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells, a dopaminergic line. Efforts to purify the toxic activity revealed that it is a highly stable, lipophilic, and chemically unique small molecule. Evidence of a robust neurotoxic factor that selectively impacts neuronal survival in a progressive yet moderate manner is consistent with the etiology of age-associated neurodegenerative diseases. Collectively, these data suggest the potential for exposures to the metabolites of specific common soil bacteria to possibly represent a contributory environmental component to PD

Herbivory by a Phloem-Feeding Insect Inhibits Floral Volatile Production

There is extensive knowledge on the effects of insect herbivory on volatile emission from vegetative tissue, but little is known about its impact on floral volatiles. We show that herbivory by phloem-feeding aphids inhibits floral volatile emission in white mustard Sinapis alba measured by gas chromatographic analysis of headspace volatiles. The effect of the Brassica specialist aphid Lipaphis erysimi was stronger than the generalist aphid Myzus persicae and feeding by chewing larvae of the moth Plutella xylostella caused no reduction in floral volatile emission. Field observations showed no effect of L. erysimi-mediated floral volatile emission on the total number of flower visits by pollinators. Olfactory bioassays suggested that although two aphid natural enemies could detect aphid inhibition of floral volatiles, their olfactory orientation to infested plants was not disrupted. This is the first demonstration that phloem-feeding herbivory can affect floral volatile emission, and that the outcome of interaction between herbivory and floral chemistry may differ depending on the herbivore's feeding mode and degree of specialisation. The findings provide new insights into interactions between insect herbivores and plant chemistry

Utility of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) in Predicting Mental Health Service Costs for Patients with Common Mental Health Problems : Historical Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Few countries have made much progress in implementing transparent and efficient systems for the allocation of mental health care resources. In England there are ongoing efforts by the National Health Service (NHS) to develop mental health 'payment by results' (PbR). The system depends on the ability of patient 'clusters' derived from the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) to predict costs. We therefore investigated the associations of individual HoNOS items and the Total HoNOS score at baseline with mental health service costs at one year follow-up.METHODS: An historical cohort study using secondary care patient records from the UK financial year 2012-2013. Included were 1,343 patients with 'common mental health problems', represented by ICD-10 disorders between F32-48. Costs were based on patient contacts with community-based and hospital-based mental health services. The costs outcome was transformed into 'high costs' vs 'regular costs' in main analyses.RESULTS: After adjustment for covariates, 11 HoNOS items were not associated with costs. The exception was 'self-injury' with an odds ratio of 1.41 (95% CI 1.10-2.99). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for the contribution of HoNOS items to high costs ranged from 0.6% (physical illness) to 22.4% (self-injury). After adjustment, the Total HoNOS score was not associated with costs (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.99-1.07). However, the PAF (33.3%) demonstrated that it might account for a modest proportion of the incidence of high costs.CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide limited support for the utility of the self-injury item and Total HoNOS score in predicting costs. However, the absence of associations for the remaining HoNOS items indicates that current PbR clusters have minimal ability to predict costs, so potentially contributing to a misallocation of NHS resources across England. The findings may inform the development of mental health payment systems internationally, especially since the vast majority of countries have not progressed past the early stages of this development. Discrepancies between our findings with those from Australia and New Zealand point to the need for further international investigations